· Analysis updated 20:57 UTC
Newcastle Croatia FC vs Lake Macquarie Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Newcastle Croatia FC and 3.25 for Lake Macquarie, a combined total of 5.25. That distribution gives Lake Macquarie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lake Macquarie win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle Croatia FC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lake Macquarie away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lake Macquarie to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 22% / 16% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Newcastle Croatia FC and 3.25 for Lake Macquarie, a combined 5.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–25.5%
- 2–25.5%
- 1–44.9%
Recent form
Newcastle Croatia FC
- 2026-09-05T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahibah · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Wallsend Red Devils · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Wallsend Red Devils · 6-6 (D)
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Wallsend Red Devils · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Cessnock City Hornets · 2-1 (W)
Lake Macquarie
- 2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Toronto Awaba Stags · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs South Cardiff · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Singleton Strikers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · A vs New Lambton · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Croatia FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T05:00:00.000Z · Newcastle Croatia FC 1-2 Lake Macquarie (NNSW League 1)
- 2026-04-18T06:30:00.000Z · Newcastle Croatia FC 4-3 Lake Macquarie (NNSW League 1)
NNSW League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallsend Red Devils | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lake Macquarie | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Dudley Redhead United | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | New Lambton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Newcastle Croatia FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 6 | West Wallsend | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 7 | Cessnock City Hornets | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Singleton Strikers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 9 | Toronto Awaba Stags | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 10 | South Cardiff | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lake Macquarie win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.