Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.60 for Central Coast Mariners, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Newcastle Jets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Newcastle Jets win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle Jets home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Central Coast Mariners away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle Jets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.60 for Central Coast Mariners, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle Jets win45%

Draw22%

Central Coast Mariners win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–19.2%
2–18.7%
1–27.3%
2–27.0%
1–05.7%

Recent form

Newcastle Jets

2026-10-13T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 1-7 (L)
2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-16T09:40:00.000Z · H vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T09:40:00.000Z · A vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)

Central Coast Mariners

2026-09-12T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu United · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu United · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-25T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Jets · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

A-League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sydney	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Auckland	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Newcastle Jets win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.