Newcastle Jets vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Newcastle Jets and 4.50 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 7.00. That distribution gives SHANGHAI SIPG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–4 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

SHANGHAI SIPG win

70.3% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 4.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle Jets home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SHANGHAI SIPG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 17% / 12% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Newcastle Jets and 4.50 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined 7.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle Jets win17%

Draw12%

SHANGHAI SIPG win70%

Double chance 1X

30%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals93%

Over 3.5 goals88%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–44.9%
2–54.4%
2–34.3%
3–44.1%
1–43.9%

Recent form

Newcastle Jets

2026-10-13T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 1-7 (L)
2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-16T09:40:00.000Z · H vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T09:40:00.000Z · A vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)

SHANGHAI SIPG

2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 6-4 (W)
2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · A vs Shandong Luneng · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

AFC Champions League Elite table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ain	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Esteghlal FC	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Al-Qadisiyah FC	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Neftchi	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Al-Nassr	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Pakhtakor	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Al Shamal	2	0	2	0	0	2
11	Al-Ittihad FC	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Tractor Sazi	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Al-Gharafa	2	0	0	2	-2	0
14	Al-Wasl FC	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	0	2	-4	0
16	Al Sadd	2	0	0	2	-5	0
1	Kashima	2	2	0	0	7	6
2	Gamba Osaka	2	2	0	0	5	6
3	Vissel Kobe	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Beijing Guoan	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	SHANGHAI SIPG	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Johor Darul Takzim FC	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Daejeon Citizen	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Kashiwa Reysol	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Kyoto Sanga	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Jeonbuk Motors	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Buriram United	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Ratchaburi	2	0	0	2	-3	0
13	Công An Nhân Dân	2	0	0	2	-4	0
14	Pohang Steelers	2	0	0	2	-4	0
15	Port FC	2	0	0	2	-5	0
16	Newcastle Jets	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SHANGHAI SIPG win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–4.

It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.