McDonald Jones Stadium · Analysis updated 12:15 UTC
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.41 for Wellington Phoenix, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Newcastle Jets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle Jets home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Wellington Phoenix away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle Jets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.41 for Wellington Phoenix, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Newcastle Jets
- 2026-10-13T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Gamba Osaka · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston Lions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T09:40:00.000Z · H vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T09:40:00.000Z · A vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)
Wellington Phoenix
- 2026-04-24T09:35:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Sydney Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Victory · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Central Coast Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Perth Glory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Sydney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Wellington Phoenix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Melbourne City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Auckland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.