Northumberland FA · Analysis updated 06:38 UTC
Newcastle United U21 vs Peterborough United U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.72 expected goals for Newcastle United U21 and 1.73 for Peterborough United U21, a combined total of 4.45. That distribution gives Newcastle United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Newcastle United U21 win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
2.72 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle United U21 home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Peterborough United U21 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle United U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.72 goals for Newcastle United U21 and 1.73 for Peterborough United U21, a combined 4.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.5%
Recent form
Newcastle United U21
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartlepool · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton Town U21 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Solihull Moors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bradford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Leeds United U21 · 0-2 (L)
Peterborough United U21
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff City U21 · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newcastle United U21 win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.