Northumberland FA · Referee G. Thomas · Analysis updated 06:08 UTC
Newcastle United U21 vs Wolves U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Newcastle United U21 and 1.40 for Wolves U21, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Newcastle United U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newcastle United U21 win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle United U21 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wolves U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle United U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Newcastle United U21 and 1.40 for Wolves U21, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Newcastle United U21
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Tamworth · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-04-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea City U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolves U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United U21 · 3-1 (W)
Wolves U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston North End U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City U21 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-13T18:00:00.000Z · Newcastle United U21 1-1 Wolves U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-03-04T19:00:00.000Z · Newcastle United U21 2-2 Wolves U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sunderland U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Fulham U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Norwich City U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Manchester United U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Everton U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Derby County U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Leeds United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Brentford U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 18 | Brighton U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 19 | West Ham United U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 20 | Stoke City U21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 21 | Arsenal U21 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | Burnley U21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 26 | Wolves U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | Birmingham City U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 29 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 30 | Leicester City U21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
| 31 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newcastle United U21 win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.