Gateshead International Stadium · Referee A. Parker · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Newcastle United W vs Durham W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.82 expected goals for Newcastle United W and 0.64 for Durham W, a combined total of 4.46. That distribution gives Newcastle United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newcastle United W win
90.8% probability
Expected goals
3.82 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle United W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Durham W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 6% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.82 goals for Newcastle United W and 0.64 for Durham W, a combined 4.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.7%
- 4–010.2%
- 2–08.4%
- 5–07.8%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Newcastle United W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City W · 1-0 (W)
Durham W
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham City W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle United W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United W · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest W | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Bristol City W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Southampton W | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Watford W | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newcastle United W win, at 90.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.