Kingston Park Stadium · Analysis updated 19:13 UTC
Newcastle United W vs Middlesbrough W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Newcastle United W and 1.30 for Middlesbrough W, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Newcastle United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle United W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Middlesbrough W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Newcastle United W and 1.30 for Middlesbrough W, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Newcastle United W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City W · 1-0 (W)
Middlesbrough W
- 2026-01-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-12-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fylde W · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton Town W · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-10-25T11:15:00.000Z · H vs Cheadle Town W · 4-0 (W)
- 2024-12-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle United W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Women's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.