Gateshead International Stadium · Referee A. Fearn · Analysis updated 22:52 UTC
Newcastle United W vs Sheffield United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for Newcastle United W and 1.00 for Sheffield United W, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Newcastle United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newcastle United W win
77.9% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle United W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sheffield United W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for Newcastle United W and 1.00 for Sheffield United W, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–06.3%
Recent form
Newcastle United W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aston Villa W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City W · 1-0 (W)
Sheffield United W
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leicester City FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Durham W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Southampton W · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Women's Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Ipswich Town W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sunderland W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Bristol City W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Southampton W | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Wolverhampton W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Leicester City FC W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield United W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Watford W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Burnley W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newcastle United W win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.