St. James' Park · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.14 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Newcastle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–07.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 47.8% vs market 39.2%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 39.2% | 47.8% | 2.09 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.7% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.5% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 29.3% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 26.0% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.8% | 55.5% | 1.80 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 60.8% | 52.2% | 1.92 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Newcastle
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
Aston Villa
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T17:45:00.000Z · Newcastle 3-1 Aston Villa (FA Cup)
- 2026-01-25T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2025-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 0-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2025-04-19T16:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-4 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2024-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 3-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2024-01-30T20:15:00.000Z · Newcastle 3-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2023-08-12T16:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 5-1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2023-07-23T23:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 3-3 Aston Villa (Premier League - Summer Series)
- 2023-04-15T11:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 0-3 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 2022-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 4-0 Aston Villa (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.