Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.00 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Newcastle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Newcastle win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bournemouth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Newcastle and 1.00 for Bournemouth, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle win55%

Draw24%

Bournemouth win22%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.2%
1–111.2%
2–09.8%
2–19.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Newcastle

2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)

Bournemouth

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	7	7	0	0	12	21
2	Arsenal	7	6	0	1	6	18
3	Brighton	7	5	1	1	18	16
4	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	4	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	1	12
6	Brentford	7	2	4	1	5	10
7	Leeds	7	2	4	1	3	10
8	Everton	7	2	4	1	1	10
9	Hull City	7	2	3	2	1	9
10	Ipswich	7	3	0	4	-4	9
11	Newcastle	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Manchester United	7	1	4	2	0	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-8	7
15	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
17	Coventry	7	2	0	5	-8	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-3	5
19	Nottingham Forest	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Newcastle win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.