Newcastle vs Brighton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Newcastle and 2.68 for Brighton, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Brighton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Brighton win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 2.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brighton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle win24%

Draw18%

Brighton win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

1–27.7%
1–36.8%
2–26.5%
2–35.8%
1–15.7%

Recent form

Newcastle

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)

Brighton

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 3-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-2 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2025-03-02T13:45:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-2 Brighton (FA Cup)
2024-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 0-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2024-05-11T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-3 Brighton (Premier League)
2023-07-28T23:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-1 Brighton (Premier League - Summer Series)
2023-05-18T18:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 4-1 Brighton (Premier League)
2022-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 0-0 Brighton (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brighton win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.