Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Newcastle and 2.35 for Chelsea, a combined total of 4.57. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.22 – 2.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelsea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle win38%

Draw19%

Chelsea win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–27.0%
1–26.3%
2–16.0%
2–35.5%
1–15.4%

Recent form

Newcastle

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)

Chelsea

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T17:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-12-20T12:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-05-11T11:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea (League Cup)
2024-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
2024-03-11T20:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-3 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (League Cup)
2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 4-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-07-27T00:15:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League - Summer Series)
2023-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.