Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.18 for Chelsea, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Newcastle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Newcastle or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle win44%

Draw26%

Chelsea win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Newcastle home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Newcastle and 1.18 for Chelsea, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Newcastle

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)

Chelsea

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T17:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-12-20T12:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
2025-05-11T11:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea (League Cup)
2024-10-27T13:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
2024-03-11T20:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 2-3 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (League Cup)
2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Newcastle 4-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
2023-07-27T00:15:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League - Summer Series)
2023-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Newcastle 1-1 Chelsea (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.