Newcastle vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.43 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Newcastle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Newcastle win

47.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newcastle home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Newcastle and 1.43 for Crystal Palace, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Newcastle win47%

Draw23%

Crystal Palace win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–19.2%
1–27.2%
1–07.1%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Newcastle

2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)

Crystal Palace

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	5	15
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	13	13
4	Brentford	6	2	4	0	6	10
5	Everton	6	2	4	0	3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Leeds	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Hull City	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Newcastle	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Manchester United	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Coventry	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Sunderland	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Tottenham	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Fulham	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Newcastle win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.