St. James' Park · Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.65 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.73. That distribution gives Newcastle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Newcastle win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newcastle home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newcastle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 21% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Newcastle and 1.65 for Sunderland, a combined 3.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.9%
Recent form
Newcastle
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 2-2 (D)
Sunderland
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newcastle win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.