· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys Res. and 0.88 for Deportivo Riestra Res., a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Newell's Old Boys Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.7% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Riestra Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newell's Old Boys Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Newell's Old Boys Res. and 0.88 for Deportivo Riestra Res., a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Newell's Old Boys Res.
Deportivo Riestra Res.
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central Res. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Córdoba Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanús Res. · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.