· Analysis updated 23:56 UTC
Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Independiente Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys Res. and 1.25 for Independiente Res., a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Independiente Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newell's Old Boys Res. home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Newell's Old Boys Res.
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Quilmes 2 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes La Plata Res · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 3-0 (W)
Independiente Res.
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferro 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atl. Rafaela 2 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-02T18:00:00.000Z · Newell's Old Boys Res. 0-1 Independiente Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-11-27T21:00:00.000Z · Newell's Old Boys Res. 4-0 Independiente Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · Newell's Old Boys Res. 1-1 Independiente Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · Newell's Old Boys Res. 0-3 Independiente Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-07-10T14:00:00.000Z · Newell's Old Boys Res. 1-0 Independiente Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Newell's Old Boys Res. 2-1 Independiente Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.