Estadio Marcelo Bielsa · Referee L. Lobo Medina · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Newells Old Boys vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Newells Old Boys and 0.82 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Newells Old Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newells Old Boys home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Riestra away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newells Old Boys to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Newells Old Boys and 0.82 for Deportivo Riestra, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.1%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.7%
- 2–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.55 | 59.7% | 62.1% | 1.61 | +2.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.11 | 84.9% | 86.6% | 1.15 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 41.6% | 42.8% | 2.34 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.70 | 25.3% | 26.4% | 3.79 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.38 | 68.1% | 69.0% | 1.45 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.3% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 57.4% | 57.2% | 1.75 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.3% | 73.6% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.95 | 31.9% | 31.0% | 3.23 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 6.25 | 15.1% | 13.4% | 7.46 | -1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.82 | 33.2% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.30 | 40.3% | 37.9% | 2.64 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Newells Old Boys
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-0 (D)
Deportivo Riestra
- 2026-10-11T17:45:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.