Estadio Marcelo Bielsa · Referee D. Herrera · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Newells Old Boys and 0.95 for Lanus, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Newells Old Boys the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newells Old Boys home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lanus away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 0–114.2%
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–26.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 62.4% vs market 55.7%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 62.4% | 1.60 | +6.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.3% | 68.2% | 1.47 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.4% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 34.0% | 34.1% | 2.93 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.70 | 34.0% | 34.1% | 2.93 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 31.9% | 31.8% | 3.14 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.3% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 37.6% | 2.66 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Newells Old Boys
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Velez Sarsfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rosario Central · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-0 (D)
Lanus
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-17T22:00:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 0-5 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-10-05T20:30:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 2-1 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-01-31T00:30:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 2-0 Lanus (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-08-26T22:00:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 1-0 Lanus (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-05-21T00:30:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 0-1 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-17T19:30:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 2-0 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-09-20T18:45:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 2-1 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-04-13T22:00:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 3-1 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2020-12-07T00:30:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 3-1 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2020-11-14T19:15:00.000Z · Newells Old Boys 4-2 Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.