Newington Youth vs Annagh United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Newington Youth and 2.21 for Annagh United, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Annagh United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Annagh United win

45.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.94 – 2.21

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newington Youth home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Annagh United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Annagh United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Newington Youth and 2.21 for Annagh United, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Newington Youth win35%

Draw20%

Annagh United win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

1–27.5%
2–27.2%
1–16.8%
2–16.6%
1–35.5%

Recent form

Newington Youth

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundela · 5-5 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 2-1 (W)

Annagh United

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	13	8	4	1	17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	7	3	2	16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	6	3	4	2	21
5	Queen's University	13	6	2	5	8	20
6	Institute	12	6	2	4	5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	4	18
9	Loughgall	13	4	5	4	-5	17
10	Ards	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	4	0	8	-11	12
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	2	4	7	-11	10
16	Armagh City	13	0	6	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Annagh United win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.