· Analysis updated 01:05 UTC
Newington Youth vs Ballymena United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Newington Youth and 2.14 for Ballymena United, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Ballymena United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ballymena United win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newington Youth home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ballymena United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ballymena United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 20% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Newington Youth and 2.14 for Ballymena United, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–28.5%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–37.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.67 (model 60.3% vs market 55.1%, edge +5.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.67 | 55.1% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +5.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.50 | 37.9% | 40.0% | 2.50 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 19.6% | 19.7% | 5.08 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.50 | 60.0% | 60.0% | 1.67 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 81.0% | 80.3% | 1.25 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.0% | 79.7% | 1.25 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 44.9% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -5.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Newington Youth
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundela · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rathfriland · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's University · 2-1 (W)
Ballymena United
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newington Youth · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Limavady United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Portadown · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ballymena United win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.