· Analysis updated 23:31 UTC
Newmarket vs Canvey Island Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Newmarket and 1.41 for Canvey Island, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Newmarket the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newmarket win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newmarket home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newmarket to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Newmarket and 1.41 for Canvey Island, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–06.6%
- 2–06.6%
- 1–26.6%
Recent form
Newmarket
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leighton Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorleston · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Canvey Island · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haringey Borough · 2-2 (D)
Canvey Island
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newmarket win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.