Rodney Parade · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Newport County vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.48 expected goals for Newport County and 2.45 for AS Roma, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives Newport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
59.7% probability
Expected goals
2.48 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newport County home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 19% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.48 goals for Newport County and 2.45 for AS Roma, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–35.5%
- 2–15.4%
- 1–25.4%
Recent form
Newport County
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Newport County 1-4 AS Roma (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.