Rodney Parade · Referee E. Heaslip · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Newport County vs Tranmere Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Newport County and 0.98 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Newport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newport County home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tranmere away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 59.0% vs market 48.9%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.9% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.5% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 68.9% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 36.5% | 37.2% | 2.69 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.4% | 3.29 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.1% | 32.5% | 3.08 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.6% | 62.9% | 1.59 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.1% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Newport County
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
Tranmere
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Newport County 2-2 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2026-03-03T19:45:00.000Z · Newport County 3-1 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Newport County 1-1 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2025-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · Newport County 1-4 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Newport County 1-2 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2024-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · Newport County 1-2 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Newport County 1-2 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2023-03-18T15:00:00.000Z · Newport County 3-1 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2022-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · Newport County 2-1 Tranmere (League Two)
- 2022-02-26T15:00:00.000Z · Newport County 4-2 Tranmere (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.