Newroz vs Mosul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Newroz and 0.55 for Mosul, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Newroz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Newroz win

71.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Newroz home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mosul away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newroz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 19% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Newroz and 0.55 for Mosul, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Newroz win72%

Draw19%

Mosul win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

2–015.7%
1–015.6%
3–010.5%
2–18.6%
1–18.6%

Recent form

Newroz

2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Ghaz Al Shamal · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jolan SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mosul · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Naft Maysan · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Duhok · 0-0 (D)

Mosul

2026-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Naft · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Zakho · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newroz · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Iraqi League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Karma	10	7	3	0	10	24
2	Newroz	10	6	3	1	12	21
3	Naft	10	6	3	1	8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	8	18
5	Erbil	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	4	5	1	5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	2	12
9	Duhok	10	2	6	2	1	12
10	Diyala	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
13	Al Talaba	10	2	5	3	-4	11
14	Mosul	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	-7	9
16	Gharraf	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	-5	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	-5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	-7	8
20	Karbala	10	1	3	6	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Newroz win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.