The Showgrounds · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Newry City AFC vs Annagh United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Newry City AFC and 1.34 for Annagh United, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Annagh United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Newry City AFC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Annagh United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 53.1% vs market 39.5%, edge +13.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.5% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +13.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.70 | 55.2% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 27.9% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.5% | 27.5% | 3.64 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.7% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 44.6% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.1% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 60.5% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -13.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Newry City AFC
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughgall · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Annagh United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Armagh City · 2-2 (D)
Annagh United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Institute · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs H&W Welders · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ards · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 1-1 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 0-4 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2024-11-29T19:45:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 0-2 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 0-1 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2023-07-20T18:45:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 2-0 Annagh United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 1-1 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2022-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 0-3 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2021-12-03T19:45:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 2-0 Annagh United (Championship)
- 2021-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · Newry City AFC 3-0 Annagh United (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 24 |
| 4 | Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 17 |
| 10 | Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.