· Analysis updated 17:06 UTC
Ngozi City vs Never Give Up Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ngozi City and 0.84 for Never Give Up Academy, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Ngozi City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ngozi City win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ngozi City home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ngozi City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Ngozi City and 0.84 for Never Give Up Academy, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–011.2%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Ngozi City
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayanza United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Star · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vital'O · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Star · 2-0 (W)
Never Give Up Academy
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Musongati · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Messager Ngozi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Star · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Muzinga · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Vision | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 21 |
| 2 | Muzinga | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Rukinzo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Le Messager Ngozi | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Olympic Star | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Aigle Noir | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Ngozi City | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Bumamuru | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Musongati | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Vital'O | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Inter Star | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Flambeau du Centre | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Never Give Up Academy | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kayanza United | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Young Star | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -15 | 5 |
| 16 | Panthere Noir | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ngozi City win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.