· Analysis updated 17:04 UTC
Nibbiano & Valtidone vs Fiorenzuola Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nibbiano & Valtidone and 0.33 for Fiorenzuola, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives Nibbiano & Valtidone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nibbiano & Valtidone win
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fiorenzuola away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nibbiano & Valtidone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 25% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Nibbiano & Valtidone and 0.33 for Fiorenzuola, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 22%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–024.2%
- 2–018.0%
- 0–016.3%
- 3–08.9%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Nibbiano & Valtidone
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pro Palazzolo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Scanzorosciate · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorenzuola · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Milano · 1-0 (W)
Fiorenzuola
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Piacenza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Villa Valle · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pro Palazzolo · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Chievo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Virtus Verona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Calepina | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Pavonese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pro Palazzolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Rovato Vertovese | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Milano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nibbiano & Valtidone win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.