Nice vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Nice and 0.95 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Nice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.0% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Estac Troyes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Nice win40%

Draw30%

Estac Troyes win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–113.4%
0–012.2%
0–111.6%
2–08.1%

Recent form

Nice

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)

Estac Troyes

2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Nice 3-2 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2022-04-24T13:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2021-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · Nice 0-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2018-04-01T15:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2017-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-2 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2016-03-05T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2015-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · Nice 3-3 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2013-04-28T15:00:00.000Z · Nice 3-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)
2012-12-08T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.