Allianz Riviera · Referee Jeremie Pignard, France · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Nice vs Le Mans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Nice and 0.86 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Nice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nice win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Le Mans away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Nice and 0.86 for Le Mans, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 54.7% vs market 45.8%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.8% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.1% | 79.0% | 1.27 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.9% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.9% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.4% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nice
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)
Le Mans
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lorient · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nice win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.