Allianz Riviera · Referee Willy Delajod, France · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Nice vs Lille Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nice and 1.29 for Lille, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lille away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 53.9% vs market 41.9%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.9% | 53.9% | 1.86 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.67 | 56.5% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 28.9% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.0% | 28.0% | 3.57 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.9% | 1.41 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.15 | 43.0% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.6% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.1% | 46.1% | 2.17 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nice
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)
Lille
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · Nice 2-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2026-04-18T19:05:00.000Z · Nice 0-0 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2025-10-29T18:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-0 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2025-01-17T20:05:00.000Z · Nice 1-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-10T14:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2024-05-19T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-2 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2023-08-11T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2023-01-29T12:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-0 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-1 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 2022-05-14T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-3 Lille (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.