Allianz Riviera · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Nice vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Nice and 1.25 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Stade Brestois 29 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Brestois 29 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Brestois 29 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Nice and 1.25 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Nice
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)
Stade Brestois 29
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.