Allianz Riviera · Referee Jeremie Pignard · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Nice vs Strasbourg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Nice and 1.13 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Nice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nice home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Strasbourg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 50.4% vs market 41.9%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.9% | 50.4% | 1.98 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.65 | 57.4% | 59.1% | 1.69 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.1% | 27.2% | 3.68 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.90 | 31.8% | 31.9% | 3.13 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 41.0% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 72.9% | 1.37 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.7% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 58.1% | 49.6% | 2.02 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Nice
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 0-3 (L)
Strasbourg
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estac Troyes · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Lens · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-22T19:00:00.000Z · Nice 2-0 Strasbourg (Coupe de France)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-3 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-03T18:00:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2025-04-12T19:05:00.000Z · Nice 2-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2024-11-24T19:45:00.000Z · Nice 2-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2024-04-28T13:00:00.000Z · Nice 3-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2023-09-03T15:05:00.000Z · Nice 2-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2023-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · Nice 0-2 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2022-08-14T15:05:00.000Z · Nice 1-1 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
- 2022-02-26T16:00:00.000Z · Nice 0-0 Strasbourg (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.