· Analysis updated 21:39 UTC
Nieciecza vs Nea Salamis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.98 for Nea Salamis, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Nea Salamis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nieciecza home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nea Salamis away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nea Salamis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Nieciecza and 1.98 for Nea Salamis, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Nieciecza
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
Nea Salamis
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Apoel Nicosia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Larnaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Anorthosis · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.