Niendorfer TSV vs Harksheide Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Niendorfer TSV and 1.85 for Harksheide, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Harksheide the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Niendorfer TSV home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Harksheide away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Niendorfer TSV win34%

Draw22%

Harksheide win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.4%
1–28.7%
2–17.5%
2–27.0%
0–15.9%

Recent form

Niendorfer TSV

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Teutonia Ottensen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sasel · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Süderelbe · 1-0 (W)

Harksheide

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Altona 93 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Buchholz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs ETSV Hamburg · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Teutonia Ottensen · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 0-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 3-4 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2025-02-21T18:30:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 2-0 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 4-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2024-02-16T18:30:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 5-0 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2023-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 1-2 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2023-01-20T18:30:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 3-0 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)
2022-08-23T17:30:00.000Z · Niendorfer TSV 6-1 Harksheide (Oberliga - Hamburg)

Oberliga - Hamburg table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paloma	12	8	2	2	11	26
2	Tus Dassendorf	11	7	2	2	17	23
3	Victoria Hamburg	12	6	5	1	8	23
4	Altona 93	11	6	3	2	6	21
5	Vorwärts-Wacker 04	12	6	3	3	5	21
6	HT16	12	6	2	4	13	20
7	Niendorfer TSV	12	6	2	4	2	20
8	Pinneberg	11	5	2	4	4	17
9	Sasel	12	5	2	5	-2	17
10	Süderelbe	12	4	3	5	2	15
11	HEBC	12	5	0	7	-3	15
12	Buchholz	12	4	3	5	-9	15
13	ETSV Hamburg	11	4	2	5	0	14
14	Teutonia Ottensen	12	3	3	6	-9	12
15	Nikola Tesla	11	3	2	6	-1	11
16	Concordia	12	3	2	7	-12	11
17	Harksheide	11	1	5	5	-9	8
18	Norderstedt II	12	1	1	10	-23	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.