· Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
NIGELEC vs MC Alger Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for NIGELEC and 1.41 for MC Alger, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives MC Alger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
MC Alger win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
NIGELEC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
MC Alger away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MC Alger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 23% / 27% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for NIGELEC and 1.41 for MC Alger, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
NIGELEC
- 2025-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Safi · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympique Safi · 0-1 (L)
- 2022-11-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyramids FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2022-11-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Raja Casablanca · 0-1 (L)
MC Alger
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MB Rouisset · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NIGELEC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs NIGELEC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is MC Alger win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.