Stade Pere-Jego · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Niger vs Mauritania Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Niger and 0.93 for Mauritania, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Mauritania the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mauritania away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mauritania to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 33% / 33% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Niger and 0.93 for Mauritania, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.1%
- 0–114.9%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Niger
Mauritania
- 2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benin · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Central African Republic · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Niger · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Angola · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-27T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.