· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Nigeria W vs Senegal W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Nigeria W and 1.18 for Senegal W, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Nigeria W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nigeria W win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Senegal W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nigeria W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 23% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Nigeria W and 1.18 for Senegal W, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Nigeria W
Senegal W
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Morocco W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kenya W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeria W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nigeria W win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.