· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Niki Volos vs Nestos Chrisoupolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Niki Volos and 0.64 for Nestos Chrisoupolis, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Niki Volos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Niki Volos win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Niki Volos home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nestos Chrisoupolis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Niki Volos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 24% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Niki Volos and 0.64 for Nestos Chrisoupolis, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.62 | 36.2% | 37.9% | 2.64 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.2% | 14.0% | 7.14 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.60 | 59.0% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 76.1% | 1.31 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.48 | 62.3% | 62.1% | 1.61 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.30 | 41.0% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.6% | 23.9% | 4.18 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.9% | 86.0% | 1.16 | -1.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Niki Volos
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ellas Syros · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Tripolis · 0-3 (L)
Nestos Chrisoupolis
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Niki Volos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyrgos 1968 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zakynthos · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-17T13:00:00.000Z · Niki Volos 2-0 Nestos Chrisoupolis (Super League 2)
- 2025-11-01T13:00:00.000Z · Niki Volos 0-0 Nestos Chrisoupolis (Super League 2)
Super League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marko | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Larisa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Panionios | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Ellas Syros | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Kallithea | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Panthrakikos | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Panserraikos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Apollon Pontou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | PAOK II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | Pyrgos 1968 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Niki Volos | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Nestos Chrisoupolis | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Olympiakos Piraeus II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Zakynthos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Karditsas | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Niki Volos win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.