· Analysis updated 05:46 UTC
Nilüfer Belediye vs Uşak Spor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Nilüfer Belediye and 0.80 for Uşak Spor, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Nilüfer Belediye the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nilüfer Belediye win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nilüfer Belediye home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uşak Spor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nilüfer Belediye to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Nilüfer Belediye and 0.80 for Uşak Spor, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Nilüfer Belediye
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kepezspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Uşak Spor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Gaziemirspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
Uşak Spor
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nilüfer Belediye · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Etimesgut SK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akşehirspor · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nilüfer Belediye win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.