Stade des Antonins · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Nimes vs Saint-Priest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Nimes and 0.63 for Saint-Priest, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Nimes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nimes win
79.7% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nimes home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Saint-Priest away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nimes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 14% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Nimes and 0.63 for Saint-Priest, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.4%
- 3–011.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 4–07.6%
Recent form
Nimes
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hyères · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hauts Lyonnais · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyes II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon Duchere · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 3-0 (W)
Saint-Priest
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UF Touraine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hyères · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hauts Lyonnais · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon Duchere · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nimes win, at 79.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.