· Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Niroye Zamini vs Ario Eslamshahr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Niroye Zamini and 0.55 for Ario Eslamshahr, a combined total of 1.05. That distribution gives Ario Eslamshahr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 29%, with the draw at 45%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 9% for over 2.5 goals and 17% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 35%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 29% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw
45.3% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Niroye Zamini home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ario Eslamshahr away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 26% / 45% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Niroye Zamini and 0.55 for Ario Eslamshahr, a combined 1.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
55%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–035.0%
- 0–119.2%
- 1–017.5%
- 1–19.6%
- 0–25.3%
Recent form
Niroye Zamini
- 2026-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Kerman · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Saipa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fard Alborz · 0-1 (L)
Ario Eslamshahr
- 2026-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havadar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naft Gachsaran · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Fard Alborz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Mes Soongoun | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Mes Kerman | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Niroye Zamini | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Havadar | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 17% and over 2.5 goals at 9%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.