· Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
Niroye Zamini vs Shahin Bandar Ameri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Niroye Zamini and 1.13 for Shahin Bandar Ameri, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Shahin Bandar Ameri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Niroye Zamini home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shahin Bandar Ameri away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shahin Bandar Ameri to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Niroye Zamini and 1.13 for Shahin Bandar Ameri, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Niroye Zamini
- 2026-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Kerman · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Saipa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fard Alborz · 0-1 (L)
Shahin Bandar Ameri
- 2024-06-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Shahr-e Babak · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-06-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Chadormalu SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ario Eslamshahr · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-16T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal Mollasani · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.