· Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Niroye Zamini vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Niroye Zamini and 0.85 for Shenavarsazi Qeshm, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Shenavarsazi Qeshm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.3% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Niroye Zamini home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shenavarsazi Qeshm away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shenavarsazi Qeshm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 28% / 36% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Niroye Zamini and 0.85 for Shenavarsazi Qeshm, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 0–118.0%
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Niroye Zamini
- 2026-10-20T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Mes Rafsanjan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-12T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Soongoun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Kerman · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Saipa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fard Alborz · 0-1 (L)
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Soongoun · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fard Alborz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Novin Ahvaz · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Havadar · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mes Rafsanjan | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Ario Eslamshahr | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Saipa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.