· Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Nissa vs CastrumFavara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nissa and 0.90 for CastrumFavara, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Nissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nissa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CastrumFavara away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nissa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 29% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Nissa and 0.90 for CastrumFavara, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Nissa
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calcio Avola · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 2-0 (W)
CastrumFavara
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trapani 1905 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igea Virtus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Lamezia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Calcio Avola · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Modica · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.