Nissa vs Igea Virtus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Nissa and 1.03 for Igea Virtus, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Igea Virtus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.85 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nissa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Igea Virtus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Igea Virtus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 29% / 32% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Nissa and 1.03 for Igea Virtus, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Nissa win29%

Draw32%

Igea Virtus win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals56%

Over 2.5 goals29%

Over 3.5 goals12%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

0–115.7%
0–015.3%
1–113.4%
1–013.0%
0–28.1%

Recent form

Nissa

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calcio Avola · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 2-0 (W)

Igea Virtus

2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Enna · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ragusa · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CastrumFavara · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggina · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nissa · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Nissa 1-1 Igea Virtus (Serie D - Girone I)
2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Nissa 2-3 Igea Virtus (Serie D - Girone I)
2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Nissa 3-0 Igea Virtus (Serie D - Girone I)
2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · Nissa 0-0 Igea Virtus (Serie D - Girone I)

Serie D - Girone I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	7	20
2	Reggina	8	6	1	1	15	19
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	12	18
4	Licata	9	5	2	2	-2	17
5	Calcio Avola	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	0	16
7	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	4	14
8	Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	6	12
9	AC Palermo	8	3	2	3	1	11
10	Gela	9	2	4	3	2	9
11	Nissa	9	2	3	4	-2	9
12	Siracusa	9	4	3	2	5	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	-2	7
15	Modica	8	2	1	5	-4	7
16	Trapani 1905	9	3	1	5	-7	5
17	Ragusa	9	0	3	6	-9	3
18	Enna	8	0	1	7	-20	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.