Nitra vs Púchov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Nitra and 1.02 for Púchov, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Nitra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Nitra win

61.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.02

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Nitra home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Púchov away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nitra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Nitra and 1.02 for Púchov, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Nitra win62%

Draw21%

Púchov win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–19.9%
2–09.7%
1–19.5%
1–09.3%
3–16.9%

Recent form

Nitra

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Trenčín II · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 1-3 (L)

Púchov

2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gabčíkovo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beluša · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Trenčín II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Trnava · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nitra	11	10	1	0	31	31
2	Dunajská Lužná	11	6	3	2	6	21
3	Púchov	11	5	4	2	11	19
4	Spartak Myjava	11	5	3	3	6	18
5	Beluša	11	4	5	2	6	17
6	Gabčíkovo	11	5	2	4	2	17
7	Baník Prievidza	11	5	1	5	1	16
8	Nové Zámky	11	4	3	4	-5	15
9	DAC II	11	4	2	5	3	14
10	Trenčín II	11	4	2	5	1	14
11	Komárno II	11	4	2	5	-9	14
12	MŠK Senec	11	4	0	7	-10	12
13	Častkovce	11	3	2	6	-7	11
14	Rača	11	2	4	5	-11	10
15	Veľké Ludince	11	2	3	6	-14	9
16	Slovan Duslo Šaľa	11	1	3	7	-11	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Nitra win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.