· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Nitra vs Rača Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.14 expected goals for Nitra and 0.80 for Rača, a combined total of 4.94. That distribution gives Nitra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nitra win
90.8% probability
Expected goals
4.14 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nitra home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rača away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nitra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 6% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.14 goals for Nitra and 0.80 for Rača, a combined 4.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–08.8%
- 3–08.5%
- 5–07.3%
- 4–17.0%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Nitra
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Trenčín II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 1-3 (L)
Rača
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Baník Prievidza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Častkovce · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Šamorín · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 31 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Púchov | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Spartak Myjava | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 5 | Beluša | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Gabčíkovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Baník Prievidza | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Nové Zámky | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 | DAC II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Trenčín II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 11 | Komárno II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 14 |
| 12 | MŠK Senec | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 13 | Častkovce | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Rača | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Veľké Ludince | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nitra win, at 90.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.