Niva vs Gomel II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.40 expected goals for Niva and 1.03 for Gomel II, a combined total of 4.43. That distribution gives Niva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Niva win

81.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.40 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Niva home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gomel II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Niva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 11% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.40 goals for Niva and 1.03 for Gomel II, a combined 4.43 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Niva win82%

Draw11%

Gomel II win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

3–18.0%
3–07.8%
2–17.1%
2–06.9%
4–16.8%

Recent form

Niva

2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomel II · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 0-1 (L)

Gomel II

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lida · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Niva · 2-5 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Slutsk · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Minsk II · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	30	19	5	6	41	62
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	30	18	5	7	29	59
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Uni Minsk	29	7	9	13	-8	30
15	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
16	Gomel II	30	6	6	18	-20	24
17	Osipovichy	30	6	5	19	-40	23
18	BATE II	29	5	7	17	-29	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Niva win, at 81.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.