Niva vs Osipovichy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.98 expected goals for Niva and 0.88 for Osipovichy, a combined total of 4.86. That distribution gives Niva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Niva win

88.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.98 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Niva home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osipovichy away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Niva win89%

Draw7%

Osipovichy win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

93%

Double chance X2

11%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals69%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

3–08.2%
4–08.1%
3–17.2%
4–17.1%
5–06.5%

Recent form

Niva

2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bumprom · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Minsk II · 4-3 (W)

Osipovichy

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsha · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Volna · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Smorgon · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bumprom · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Minsk II · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · Niva 6-0 Osipovichy (1. Division)
2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Niva 4-2 Osipovichy (1. Division)
2025-08-23T10:00:00.000Z · Niva 7-0 Osipovichy (1. Division)
2025-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · Niva 2-2 Osipovichy (1. Division)
2023-11-19T11:00:00.000Z · Niva 4-1 Osipovichy (1. Division)
2023-07-16T13:00:00.000Z · Niva 3-1 Osipovichy (1. Division)

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	29	19	4	6	41	61
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	17	5	7	26	56
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
15	Uni Minsk	28	7	8	13	-8	29
16	Osipovichy	29	6	5	18	-37	23
17	BATE II	28	5	7	16	-26	22
18	Gomel II	29	5	6	18	-23	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Niva win, at 88.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.